My 2011 Predictions Revisited

About 2/3 Accurate

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 ~ A year ago I took a stab at predictions for 2011. Seems like I've run out of time waiting for most of them to come to pass, so it's time for a report card, using a scale of 1 (utterly wrong) to 10 (perfectly prescient):

Cleantech Needs Recycling

Resource Extraction Has Limits

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~ Our modern gadgets need many different kinds of resource inputs, including dozens of rare and unusual elements:

Try as we might, it's impossible to fashion wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles out of thin air. These technologies are complex, and many different materials go into their production. The problem is, a lot of the necessary metals aren't recycled at the end of their lives--and that could lead to shortages in the future, putting the entire clean technology sector at risk.

The news comes from a new UN report, which explains that under one-third of 60 recyclable metals have an end-of-life recycling rate above 50%. And 34 elements--many of which are crucial for clean technology--have recycling rates of less than 1%. This may not seem like a big deal now, but mined metals are a limited resource. As these materials become more scarce, we will see increases in land disruption, water impacts, energy use, and of course, cost.

The article makes a common mistake of referring to industrial metals (here: selenium and tellurium) as rare earths, which they are not. Rare earth elements are the lanthanides, although many other elements are, or will be, experiencing similar supply chain pressures. Nonetheless, the core point remains valid: in a world of ramping demand for products that consume finite resources, recycling is neceesary for sustained production.

Rare, But Not Unusual

Rare Earth Elements

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News stories about rare earth elements (REE) are becoming more frequent as greater attention focuses on the rise of the cleantech and renewable energy industries, the growing economic competition between the US and China, and issues of natural resource scarcity and security.

REE are under increasing control by China, which dominates world production and supply. The Chinese have used their effective monopoly to further their industrialization, but also as part of a broader effort to establish their position in the global economic and political order.

The physical properties, commercial uses, economic factors, and political considerations of REE are not widely known or appreciated by the public, yet their importance is real and growing. An examination of the different aspects of REE will illuminate not just their future significance, but also serve as an example of the broader economic and political trends of the next few decades.